In recent weeks, fuel prices across the UK have begun to climb once again. The immediate cause is clear: escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran, have unsettled global energy markets. Traders fear disruption to oil supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which around one fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Whenever instability threatens that route, markets react quickly and oil prices rise.
That part of the story is well understood.
What is far less clear, and increasingly concerning, is how quickly those global events appear to be translating into dramatic price increases here at home.
A Local Charity Facing a Price Shock
This issue came into sharp focus after I was contacted by the Chairman of Trustees at the Ravenstone Hospital Almshouse Charity in North West Leicestershire.
The charity provides 26 almshouse flats for elderly residents in Ravenstone and relies on a central heating oil system to heat the buildings. Like many rural organisations and households, they have no access to mains gas and must purchase heating oil in bulk.
What Gareth described was staggering.
Only days earlier, the charity had been paying around 52p per litre for heating oil. Within just three days the price had risen to £1.15 per litre, and the most recent quote they received had climbed to £1.43 per litre.
That represents a rise approaching 300% in a matter of days.
When you are purchasing hundreds of litres each month, a price shock like that creates immediate financial pressure.
Markets Move But Not That Fast
Of course, global energy markets are volatile. When geopolitical tensions rise, wholesale oil prices often follow. That is the reality of a globally traded commodity.
But there is an important detail that many people understandably question.
Fuel currently being sold in the UK, whether at petrol stations or in heating oil deliveries, was largely purchased weeks earlier at lower prices and stored within supply chains.
In normal circumstances, changes in wholesale oil prices take time to filter through the system before they appear in consumer prices. Stocks must be replenished at the new higher price before retailers truly feel the impact.
That is why many residents, businesses and charities are asking a simple question.
If the fuel being sold today was bought before the crisis escalated, why are prices rising immediately?
When Market Reaction Becomes Opportunism
No one disputes that markets will move in response to global events. But what we may be seeing here is something slightly different.
There is a growing suspicion that some suppliers are reacting not to their actual costs, but to headlines and market expectations. In other words, pricing today’s fuel at tomorrow’s potential cost.
In highly competitive markets, that behaviour is usually constrained. Retailers risk losing customers to cheaper competitors.
However, the heating oil market is very different.
In many rural communities, households are served by only a small number of local suppliers, sometimes effectively just one. Customers often have to telephone for individual quotes, with little price transparency or ability to compare rates quickly.
This creates a market where price discovery is opaque, and where sudden increases can occur with limited competitive pressure.
Concerns Raised in Parliament
The seriousness of this issue has not gone unnoticed in Westminster.
A number of Conservative MPs have written to the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) calling for an urgent investigation into the heating oil supply market. Their letter highlights several troubling patterns that constituents across rural Britain are reporting.
These include
• Delivery bookings being cancelled only to be re offered the same day at a much higher price
• Lack of price transparency with many suppliers requiring customers to request individual quotes rather than publishing prices
• Automatic delivery schemes often used by elderly customers where fuel is delivered without the price being clearly confirmed beforehand
In some reported cases customers discovered they had been charged 50% more than prevailing market rates, only learning the true price after payment had already been taken.
That is not healthy market behaviour. It damages consumer confidence, trust and long term economic stability.
A Conservative Case for Fair Markets
Let me be clear. I am instinctively cautious about government intervention.
Excessive regulation has a long track record of stifling innovation, discouraging investment and slowing economic growth. Britain’s prosperity depends on competitive markets where businesses are free to grow and succeed.
But free markets rely on fair competition and transparency.
When markets become opaque, when customers cannot easily compare prices, and when suppliers can exploit sudden crises to push through disproportionate increases, confidence in the market begins to break down.
And when that happens it harms not just consumers but responsible businesses too.
The vast majority of fuel suppliers operate responsibly and competitively. They deserve a level playing field where unscrupulous operators cannot take advantage of a crisis to inflate prices dramatically.
Adding to the Pressure
Unfortunately at the very moment households and organisations are facing rising global energy costs, the Government appears poised to make matters worse.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is planning the first increase in fuel duty in 15 years.
The Conservative government froze fuel duty from 2011 onwards and introduced a 5p cut in 2022 to help families cope with the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yet the Autumn Budget 2025 announced that this cut will gradually be reversed, with motorists facing a 1p rise this September, a further 2p in December, and another 2p in March.
That means families and businesses may soon face a double squeeze, rising global fuel prices alongside higher taxes at home.
Time for Answers
Energy markets are complex and influenced by global forces far beyond our control.
But when local charities see their heating oil costs triple in a matter of days, it is reasonable to ask whether something deeper is going on.
We must ensure that crises abroad do not become opportunities for profiteering at home.
The Competition and Markets Authority investigation now being called for is an important step. It should examine whether the heating oil market is operating transparently and competitively, and whether consumers are being treated fairly.
Because free markets only work when they are trusted.
And right now, for many people relying on heating oil across rural Britain, that trust is starting to wear dangerously thin.
